The news out of Europe seems to get worse by the minute. Leading Spanish bank Bankia continues to experience customer withdrawals. Greek banks suffered the same fate recently as customers staged a run on many of the financial institutions. Today, the IBEX 35 (Spain) is trading lower by 1.36 percent, meanwhile, the FTSE MIB Index (Italy) is declining lower by 1.94 percent. Any way you slice it or dice it, Europe is a mess and is likely to get worse before it gets better. Traders should continue to follow the US Dollar Index as the major stock indexes continue to trade inverse to the US Dollar. Please understand that the US Dollar Index is now overbought in the short term and could be due for a small pullback. Some leading equities that could bounce if the dollar declines include ProShares Ultra Silver (ETF) (NYSEARCA:AGQ), Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE:NEM), ProShares Ultra DJ-UBS Crude Oil (NYSEARCA:UCO), and Yamana Gold Inc. (USA) (NYSE:AUY). These same equities are likely to decline if the US Dollar Index continues to rise.
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This morning, all of the major stock indexes around the world are trading lower. The catalyst for the decline comes as JP Morgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM) reports a $ 2 billion trading loss caused by the a trader known as the “London Whale.” Traders are now wondering if other firms have similar trading losses out there. Just last week, Prudential Financial Inc (NYSE:PRU) plummeted after reporting earnings. The company sited a large derivative trading loss as the reason for the poor earnings results. This news from JPM is now the second report by a major firm that has admittedly taken a large loss from derivative trading. JPM has been one of the most outspoken firms against the controversial Volker Rule which would eliminate banks from proprietary trading. Other leading financial equities such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), ProShares UltraShort Financials (ETF) (NYSEARCA:SKF) and BlackRock, Inc (NYSE:BLK) are all likely to be very volatile today.
This morning, the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES-M2) are trading higher by 11.00 points to 1362.00 per contract. The catalyst for the rally in the stock market today comes as the US Dollar Index declines and trade lower. As you all know, when the dollar dips the markets around the world will inflate and trade higher. This is a sad fact, however, that is just the way it is. As a trader, we simply want to understand what moves the markets and take advantage of the chart patterns. All of the European stock indexes are trading higher today. Traders can watch for strength in most European equities at the start of the day. Some equities that could be in play today are the CurrencyShares Euro Trust (NYSEARCA:FXE), iShares MSCI Spain Index (ETF) (NYSEARCA:EWP), Deutsche Bank AG (USA) (NYSE:DB), and Banco Santander, SA (ADR) (NYSE:STD).
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Nearly every trading day we hear news coming out of Europe or Asia that is considered important. This news is usually spun by the media as the reason or catalyst for a rally or sell off in the stock market. Today, the financial news will tell you that the stock market is lower because Greece is unable to form a government, however, the bottom line is that the markets are trading inverse to the US Dollar Index futures (DX-M2). This pattern is very evident by comparing a chart of the US Dollar Index futures and the S&P 500 Index futures, it is as inverse as two charts can get. The US Dollar Index chart is the one equity that every trader should follow at this time. Europe will continue to have big problems for months and possibly years to come.
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27 March 2012: Episode 2 looks at commodities – with oil prices hitting the headlines once again this week we look at the opportunities for investors. Guests include the Artemis fund manager, Richard Hulf and BlackRock’s Evy Hambro. Find out more information at – www.hl.co.uk
This morning, the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES-M2) are trading higher by 4.00 points to 1401.50 per contract. The catalyst for the slightly higher futures market is a stronger European stock market and a better than expected weekly jobless claims report. Most traders and investors are eagerly awaiting tomorrow’s non-farm payroll report by the US Labor Department.
